4.1 Impact of Food Import/Aid on Food Security and Nutrition Situation In the short run, food import or food aid is an important source of food security for vulnerable groups. A product embodies all the resources used to produce it: land, water, energy and so on, whether or not they contribute to the final price in the market. Source: resourcetrade.earth, The importance of “virtual water” is increasingly being highlighted by changes in water availability, driven by over-use depleting reserves and climate change. International food trade plays an important role in global food security. © The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2020, Visit our sister site for circular economy and waste data, policies, and analysis, UK food and nutrition security in a global COVID-19 context: an early stock take, Trade restrictions on metals and minerals, © Chatham House, The Royal Institute of International Affairs, © The Royal Institute of International Affairs, 2020. Through trade, therefore, our globalized system provides cheaper food for all. Is there an optimal balance between these risks and rewards, and how might this change with external changes (e.g. It also allows countries with a significant agricultural economy to export and benefit from this. maize and soya) and Russia (e.g. A recent study shows that about 11 per cent of food trade - mostly exports from Pakistan, the US and India - has embodied non-renewable groundwater used in irrigation, providing some long-term food security risks for those countries that rely on the trade.4 The recent growth in the export of a fodder crop, alfalfa, from the US to China is an example of where these issues have come to the fore. The amount, and type, of food trade is both growing and changing every year. The top four export markets in descending order are China ($21.4bn), Mexico ($15.4bn), Canada ($12.9bn), and Japan ($11.5bn). Mexico is, seemingly,14 already imagining a post-NAFTA regime where imports of food, necessary for its own food security, no longer come from the US by train, but are shipped instead from Brazil, Argentina (e.g. It is widely believed that importing countries benefit environmentally from international food trade at the environmental cost of exporting countries. This is 38 per cent of the total embodied water traded. Irrigation can ensure an adequate and reliable supply of water which increases yields of most crops. Third, if demand for non-US exports among China and other importers is sustained, then there could be significant intensification of agriculture among alternate producers such as Brazil to increase supply. Protectionism in the US could therefore be a triple setback for the potential of meeting the Paris climate agreement: with the reduction of climate change mitigation, re-intensification of fossil fuel use, and potential land use change from changing agricultural trade. This is a question that has only started to be asked18 and it requires greater consideration than is normally given from either end of the ideological spectrum: “the market will solve all issues if trade is without any barriers” versus “the answer is in self-sufficiency”. The consequence of a rise in protectionist policies on a global scale is likely to manifest itself as a significant upwards driver of prices. US Protectionism A Boon For Asia's Alternative Agricultural Suppliers. Flows illustrated are those between the 10 largest producer- and consumer-nations of embodied land in global trade in non-livestock agriculture. US agricultural exports were valued at $119 billion in 2015, and imports at $93 billion. Food, energy and water: this is what the United Nations refers to as the ‘nexus’ of sustainable development. They might say things like “imported foods bring diseases to our nation, as well as deprive people of work”. Changes in production, such as caused by weather, geopolitics and government policies, interact with the market to change prices and availability. Of course, a country that imports high-protein feed permits a volume of feed supply greater than the local constraints on feed production would otherwise enable. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, our study reveals a major environmental problem in importing countries. It is widely believed that importing countries benefit environmentally from international food trade at the environmental cost of exporting countries. Imagine a world where the US administration honours in full its campaign promises, perhaps imposing tariffs on goods from China, including on non-agricultural produce like steel; while at the same time dismantling NAFTA.

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